For the battleground states, going west to east, with limited expertise in most states,
here’s my call and reason.
Nevada (6) – Obama; Seems like Harry Reid has the place wired when
he wants to. Small chance he doesn’t want to wire it for the President, But, he
clearly can’t stand Romney. The guy is an evil genius.
Colorado (9) – Romney; Pretty much just a guess her. The state GOP
has screwed up so much recently, I’m thinking they may have bottomed
out.
Iowa (6) – Obama; I
have some insight into my own state, and it’s this: A recent bike trip took me out to what should
be the reddest part of the red part of the state. That being the rural west
center. It’s been redistricted, but for
the most part it’s Steve King’s (R) district. He’s being challenged by Kristi
Vilsack (a rookie Democrat politician who is the current wife of our reasonably
popular ex- Governor and current Sec. of Ag. Tom Vilsack). There were many more
signs for her than there were for him. I think that’s as troubling as it is curious.
The president carried Iowa by 9% in 2008. Although Iowa did elect a Republican
Governor in 2010, I just don’t see
enough solid support for Romney to see him making up that ground.
Wisconsin (10) – Romney;
No particular insight here. However, the Sconie Repubs do seem to beat
the spread lately and the spread seems to be close to nil.
Florida (29) – Romney;
Just going with the conventional wisdom here. Maybe you could make the argument
that the Jewish community in southeastern FL just decides to sit this one out
and makes it a more than comfortable Romney win. I don’t know.
Ohio (18) – Obama;
Who really knows? Seems like the
polls have all given him a small but steady lead. I don’t really think there are
that many people who are going to change their minds in the last week or so. I’m
sure the Dem’s using everything that they’ve got in to the GOTV there.
Virginia (13) – Romney; On balance it seems more like NC, TN, KY and
WV than it does MD.
Pennsylvania (20) – Obama; It’s just too big a jump to call it any other
way.
New Hampshire (4) – Obama;
Small enough state that the “broken glass” voters could make the
difference, but in the end it’s really now just another Northeastern state.
Final EC - Obama = 270 / Romney = 268
Popular vote – Obama = 49.0
Romney
= 50.3
Other = 00.7
Total Ballots cast = 135,442,071
States with litigable results Wisconsin and New Hampshire
